LMFX Daily Forex Outlook

Date: 09.11.2026

Market Sentiment

Risk appetite is recovering Monday as Asian chip shares follow Wall Street’s Friday bounce, but the gains are uneven. Taiwan rallied after regulators tightened short-selling rules, while South Korea struggled to recover from Friday’s circuit breaker. The dollar has eased from its payrolls-driven surge, though markets still assign about an 80% chance to a December Federal Reserve rate increase. Crude is lower after President Donald Trump signaled restraint on Iran while talks progress. Reports of attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz keep supply risk in play, leaving the equity rebound exposed to a reversal in oil.

Previous Session Recap

U.S. payrolls rose 165,000 in October, lifting the dollar index about 0.7% Friday. The Nasdaq-100 rose 1.35% after Thursday’s 6.36% selloff, while the S&P 500 gained 0.31% and the Dow fell 0.46%. South Korea’s KOSPI lost 6.02% after a 20-minute trading halt. Germany’s DAX fell 1.92%.

Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines

• The kiwi led major currencies higher despite uncertainty after New Zealand’s close election.
• China’s annual producer inflation accelerated to 5.7%, while consumer inflation slowed to 0.7%.
• Japan’s Nikkei closed 2.3% higher, while South Korea’s KOSPI gave back its early gains.
• German exports rose a stronger-than-expected 2.0% in September.

Forex Focus of the Day

EUR/USD has bounced from Friday’s 1.1132 low. A sustained move through 1.1200 would strengthen the recovery. Today’s U.S. consumer inflation expectations survey could move Treasury yields ahead of Tuesday’s CPI.

Key Economic Events

Time (GMT)	Event	Currency	Impact
07:00 GMT	German trade balance, released	EUR	Medium
09:30 GMT	Eurozone Sentix investor confidence	EUR	Medium
13:40 GMT	Fed’s Bowman discusses community banking	USD	Low
15:00 GMT	Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks	USD	Medium
16:00 GMT	New York Fed consumer inflation expectations	USD	Medium
17:25 GMT	Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks	GBP	Medium

Major Forex Currency Outlooks

Pair	Price	Bias	Main Driver
EUR/USD	1.1155	Cautious bearish	December Fed hike bets cap rebound
GBP/USD	1.3371	Neutral	Bailey speech tests sterling’s rebound
USD/JPY	158.33	Neutral	Lower Treasury yields trim dollar gains
USD/CAD	1.4113	Neutral	Broad dollar easing offsets softer crude
AUD/USD	0.6892	Cautious bullish	Asian equity recovery lifts risk appetite
NZD/USD	0.5587	Cautious bullish	Risk rebound outweighs election uncertainty
NZD/JPY	88.45	Bullish	Kiwi leads as chip shares rebound
EUR/GBP	0.8342	Neutral	German export surprise, Sentix and Bailey

Energy & Commodities Watch

Instrument	Price	Bias	Main Driver
USOIL, WTI Crude Oil	$89.67	Bearish	Iran talks ease immediate supply fears
UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil	$96.61	Bearish	Reduced strike risk pressures front-month prices
NGAS, Natural Gas	$3.033	Cautious bullish	Early gains challenge Friday’s high
Gold	$4,123.46	Bullish	Softer oil and lower yields support bullion
Silver	$52.57	Bullish	Silver tracks gold’s rally

Energy benchmarks are December WTI, January Brent and December Henry Hub futures. Metals are spot per troy ounce. Above-average U.S. gas storage could limit the rebound.

Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch

Instrument	Price	Bias	Main Driver
USA100 (Nasdaq-100 cash)	26,989.99	Cautious rebound	U.S. chip shares recover after Thursday’s rout
TAIEX (cash)	41,661.70	Cautious bullish	Short-selling curbs and TSMC rebound

USA100 shows Friday’s cash benchmark close. Nasdaq-100 futures rose early Monday. Taiwan gained 4.94% after last week’s 12.2% drop. CoreWeave’s Tuesday results will test sentiment around AI spending.

Key Market Technical Zones

Instrument	Support	Resistance	Key Condition
EUR/USD	1.1130	1.1200	Below support renews selling pressure
GBP/USD	1.3350	1.3400	Breakout extends sterling recovery
USD/JPY	158.00	158.50	Break sets near-term direction
USD/CAD	1.4070	1.4140	Resistance break favors the U.S. dollar
AUD/USD	0.6860	0.6910	Above resistance extends gains
NZD/USD	0.5530	0.5650	Holding support sustains rebound
NZD/JPY	87.40	88.50	Breakout confirms kiwi strength
EUR/GBP	0.8335	0.8355	Bailey speech may trigger breakout
USOIL, WTI Crude Oil	$89	$91	Above resistance eases pressure
UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil	$96	$98.30	Support break deepens pullback
NGAS, Natural Gas	$3.00	$3.05	Breakout confirms gas recovery
Gold	$4,100	$4,135	Holding support preserves momentum
Silver	$52.00	$53.10	Breakout extends metals rally
USA100 (Nasdaq-100 cash)	26,600	27,300	Above Friday’s high strengthens rebound
TAIEX (cash)	41,575	42,350	Above Monday’s early high extends rebound

Trader’s Takeaway

Renewed disruption near Hormuz could derail the chip rebound. A Nasdaq-100 cash break above 27,300 would strengthen the recovery. EUR/USD below 1.1130 after today’s U.S. inflation expectations survey would signal renewed dollar demand.

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