LMFX Daily Forex Outlook

Date: 12.11.2026

Market Sentiment

Risk appetite is fragile as Nvidia’s leadership uncertainty threatens to unwind Wednesday’s technology rally. Nasdaq futures are falling, while the dollar remains supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates next month after unexpectedly strong inflation. Reopening Treasury trading adds another test for currencies and precious metals after the holiday closure. Britain offers a counterweight: third-quarter GDP increased 0.7%, reinforcing the economy’s resilience following the Bank of England’s recent rate increase. The immediate question is whether domestic strength can support sterling against a dollar benefiting from both yield expectations and defensive demand.

Previous Session Recap

Wednesday’s Nasdaq-100 gained 2.28%, while the S&P 500 advanced 1.31% and the Dow rose 0.49%. CoreWeave jumped 24.7% following its earnings update. Britain’s FTSE 100 added 0.78%, supported by energy and mining shares. Brent settled 1.39% higher.

Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines

• Nvidia fell more than 8% in extended trading, reversing the technology sector’s favorable momentum.
• Japan’s currency diplomat renewed intervention warnings as USD/JPY approached 160; BOJ policymaker Asada opposed premature tightening.
• UK September output rose 0.2%, complementing the stronger quarterly growth reading.
• Oil retreated as increased OPEC+ production and diplomatic hopes challenged geopolitical supply premiums.

Forex Focus of the Day

GBP/USD pits resilient British growth against persistent dollar demand. GDP matched quarterly expectations, so confirmation must come from sterling’s price response. A recovery through 1.3295 would ease immediate pressure; losing 1.3235 would reinforce the bearish structure. EUR/GBP offers a second measure of sterling’s domestic support.

Key Economic Events

Time (GMT)	Event	Currency	Impact
07:00 GMT	UK GDP: released	GBP	High
09:00 GMT	ECB Economic Bulletin	EUR	Medium
13:30 GMT	US initial jobless claims	USD	High
15:00 GMT	US existing home sales	USD	Medium
17:00 GMT	EIA crude inventories	USD/CAD	High
19:30 GMT	ECB President Lagarde speaks	EUR	High

Major Forex Currency Outlooks

Indicative spot references reflect available morning quotations; biases remain conditional on the technical zones.

Pair	Price	Bias	Main Driver
EUR/USD	1.1080	Bearish	Fed tightening expectations
GBP/USD	1.3259	Cautious	GDP versus dollar strength
USD/JPY	159.74	Bullish, fragile	Intervention risk near 160
USD/CAD	1.4258	Bullish	Falling oil pressures CAD
AUD/USD	0.6823	Bearish	Technology-led risk aversion
NZD/USD	0.5548	Bearish	Defensive dollar demand
EUR/GBP	0.8355	Lower tilt	UK growth supports sterling
GBP/JPY	211.75	Conditional upside	GDP support; intervention exposure

Energy & Commodities Watch

Energy references use December WTI, January Brent, and December Henry Hub futures; metals are spot. Prices are dollars per barrel, MMBtu, or troy ounce respectively.

Instrument	Price	Bias	Main Driver
USOIL, WTI Crude Oil	$85.29	Bearish	Supply growth; inventory risk
UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil	$91.29	Bearish	Diplomacy reduces supply premium
NGAS, Natural Gas	$3.234	Rebound	Recovering from Wednesday’s pullback
Gold	$3,959.03	Bearish	Dollar and rate pressure
Silver	$51.36	Bearish	Monetary and industrial sensitivity

Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch

The US technology reversal leads: Nasdaq futures fell about 1%. Taiwan dropped roughly 2.8%, highlighting semiconductor spillovers. European futures rose despite weaker Asian markets. UK growth and falling oil create a distinct test for London’s sector mix. Index prices and technical zones below reference Wednesday’s cash closes, not futures or broker CFD quotations.

Instrument	Price	Bias	Main Driver
USA100, Nasdaq-100 cash	28,374.25	Opening downside	Nvidia reverses technology optimism
UK100, FTSE 100 cash	10,835.47	Mixed	GDP resilience versus energy weakness

Key Market Technical Zones

Rounded decision zones combine recent ranges, session pivots, and psychological thresholds.

Instrument	Support	Resistance	Key Condition
EUR/USD	1.1060	1.1115	Below support extends weakness
GBP/USD	1.3235	1.3295	Recovery needs resistance reclaim
USD/JPY	159.30	160.20	Intervention threatens upside
USD/CAD	1.4230	1.4270	Support preserves upward pressure
AUD/USD	0.6820	0.6845	Support break confirms weakness
NZD/USD	0.5545	0.5580	Below support extends losses
EUR/GBP	0.8345	0.8370	Support break favors sterling
GBP/JPY	211.60	212.45	Support must hold
USOIL, WTI Crude Oil	85.00	87.00	Breakdown increases downside risk
UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil	90.00	93.00	Resistance caps recovery
NGAS, Natural Gas	3.22	3.30	Resistance reclaim strengthens rebound
Gold	3,950	4,000	Below support deepens correction
Silver	51.00	52.00	Resistance limits rebound
USA100, Nasdaq-100 cash	28,100	28,600	Cash breakdown confirms reversal
UK100, FTSE 100 cash	10,750	10,850	Breakout needs sector breadth

Trader’s Takeaway

Technology contagion and renewed Treasury price discovery dominate risk. Jobless claims test the dollar’s advantage, while inventories challenge oil. Watch GBP/USD at 1.3295 and Nasdaq-100 cash at 28,100 for confirmation rather than assuming Wednesday’s recovery survives.

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