Date: 20.07.2026
Market Sentiment
Risk sentiment is cautious as renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and restricted Strait of Hormuz traffic push Brent above $90, reviving inflation fears. Higher oil has lifted Treasury yields and strengthened expectations of renewed Federal Reserve tightening, pressuring equities, gold, and lower-yielding currencies. The dollar is marginally softer after three advancing sessions as Australian and New Zealand currencies attract dip-buying. Equity futures are steadier, but Friday’s semiconductor rout and this week’s major technology earnings keep USA100 vulnerable. Canada CPI is today’s clearest scheduled volatility risk.
Previous Session Recap
Friday’s technology selloff drove Nasdaq down 1.40%, S&P 500 down 1.01%, and Dow down 0.77%. WTI and Brent gained about 4.5% on Gulf escalation, while the dollar finished a volatile week lower.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- Restricted Hormuz shipping lifts Brent above $90 and WTI above $83.
- China kept one-year and five-year LPRs at 3.00% and 3.50%, supporting offshore yuan.
- Japan is closed for Marine Day; USD/JPY remains near its 162.84 40-year high.
- Higher yields pressure technology valuations before major earnings.
Forex Focus of the Day
USD/CAD is today’s focus at 1.4007 before Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC. Elevated crude supports CAD, but soft inflation could reduce Bank of Canada tightening expectations. A break below 1.4000 would confirm CAD strength; rejection would preserve the range.
Key Economic Events
Times: UTC.
| Time | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01:15 | China 1Y/5Y LPR, unchanged | CNY | Medium |
| 06:00 | Germany June PPI | EUR | Medium |
| 12:30 | Canada June CPI | CAD | High |
| 14:00 | US June Leading Index | USD | Medium |
| 22:45 | New Zealand Q2 CPI | NZD | High |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1438 | Neutral-bearish | US yields; 1.1480 pivotal |
| GBP/USD | 1.3460 | Mildly bullish | UK transition; 1.3470 breakout |
| USD/JPY | 162.41 | Bullish-cautious | Yield gap; intervention risk |
| USD/CAD | 1.4007 | Bearish | Oil support; CPI tests 1.4000 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6990 | Mildly bullish | Risk rebound; 0.7000 caps |
| NZD/USD | 0.5851 | Neutral | Q2 CPI sets next leg |
| USD/CNH | 6.7731 | Bearish | Steady LPR; 6.7710 vulnerable |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8498 | Bearish | UK confidence; 0.8490 vulnerable |
Energy & Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL (WTI) | $83.79/bbl | Bullish | Hormuz risk; 84.85 breakout |
| UKOIL (Brent) | $90.71/bbl | Bullish | Gulf premium; above $90 bullish |
| NGAS (Henry Hub) | $2.872/MMBtu | Bearish | Output and storage cap rebounds |
| XAU/USD (Gold) | $4,005.66/oz | Neutral-bearish | Yields offset havens; $4,000 pivotal |
| XAG/USD (Silver) | $56.58/oz | Mildly bullish | Dollar softness; 57.37 caps |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA100 (Nasdaq 100) | 28,592.66 | Bearish-volatile | Chip rout; earnings test rebound |
| USDIndex | 100.74 | Neutral | Yields support; 100.87 caps |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1420 | 1.1480 | Break favors bulls |
| GBP/USD | 1.3435 | 1.3470 | Break opens 1.3500 |
| USD/JPY | 162.30 | 162.85 | Break risks intervention |
| USD/CAD | 1.4000 | 1.4040 | Support loss favors CAD |
| AUD/USD | 0.6975 | 0.7000 | Break opens 0.7020 |
| NZD/USD | 0.5825 | 0.5860 | CPI decides break |
| USD/CNH | 6.7710 | 6.7790 | Support loss favors yuan |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8490 | 0.8505 | Support loss extends decline |
| USOIL (WTI) | 82.90 | 84.85 | Break opens 86.00 |
| UKOIL (Brent) | 89.50 | 91.00 | Above $90 stays bullish |
| NGAS (Henry Hub) | 2.84 | 2.92 | Support loss extends weakness |
| XAU/USD (Gold) | 4,000 | 4,029 | Below $4,000 exposes 3,983 |
| XAG/USD (Silver) | 56.00 | 57.37 | Break confirms continuation |
| USA100 (Nasdaq 100) | 28,231 | 28,867 | Reclaim eases selloff |
| USDIndex | 100.69 | 100.87 | Break sets direction |
Trader’s Takeaway
Hormuz escalation remains the dominant risk because another oil leg higher would reinforce inflation, yields, and dollar support. Canada CPI is today’s main catalyst, followed by New Zealand CPI. Watch USD/CAD at 1.4000, Brent at $91, and USA100 at 28,867 for confirmation.
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