Date: 01.09.2026
Market Sentiment
Risk sentiment is cautious as renewed Gulf conflict lifts oil, bond yields, and inflation expectations. Japan’s 10-year yield reached 3%, while the U.S. 10-year yield approached 4.78%, reinforcing expectations for Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan tightening. The yen remains near the intervention-sensitive 160 area despite U.S.-Japan coordination. Strong Chinese and eurozone manufacturing surveys provide a counterweight, but constrained Strait of Hormuz traffic and Brent above $91 keep the tone defensive before U.S. factory and labor-demand data.
Previous Session Recap
Wall Street declined Monday as U.S.-Iran hostilities lifted oil and Treasury yields. The Dow lost 0.70%, the S&P 500 fell 0.33%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.12%. Brent gained 2.7%, while gold fell 1.1% as rate expectations outweighed haven demand.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- Japan’s 10-year yield touched 3%, strengthening BOJ tightening expectations.
- U.S. and Japanese officials reaffirmed coordination with USD/JPY near 160.
- China’s RatingDog manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 on stronger output and exports.
- Eurozone manufacturing PMI reached a four-year high of 52.7.
- Brent exceeded $91 as Hormuz traffic remained constrained.
Forex Focus of the Day
USD/JPY is Tuesday’s Forex focus. Higher U.S. yields support the dollar, but a 73% probability of a September BOJ increase and bilateral coordination limit upside near 160.00. Holding below resistance favors 158.80. A sustained break would increase intervention risk and confirm U.S. yields still dominate.
Key Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01:45 GMT | China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI | CNY | High |
| 08:00 GMT | Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, Final | EUR | High |
| 08:30 GMT | UK Manufacturing PMI, Final | GBP | High |
| 09:00 GMT | Eurozone CPI, Flash | EUR | High |
| 13:45 GMT | U.S. Manufacturing PMI, Final | USD | High |
| 14:00 GMT | U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Openings | USD | High |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1597 | Neutral, bullish | Strong factories; CPI risk |
| GBP/USD | 1.3540 | Neutral, bearish | Record gilt yields |
| USD/JPY | 159.85 | Neutral, volatile | Yield gap; intervention risk |
| USD/CHF | 0.8100 | Bullish | Higher U.S. yields |
| USD/CAD | 1.3870 | Neutral, bearish | Oil support for loonie |
| AUD/USD | 0.7168 | Bullish | Strong China PMI |
| EUR/JPY | 185.49 | Neutral, volatile | ECB-BOJ repricing |
| AUD/JPY | 114.55 | Neutral, bullish | China strength; BOJ risk |
Energy & Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $86.46 | Bullish, volatile | U.S.-Iran hostilities |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $91.15 | Bullish, volatile | Constrained Hormuz traffic |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.93 | Neutral | Weather and supply balance |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,430.78 | Bearish, volatile | Rising global yields |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $66.44 | Bearish, volatile | Rate pressure; profit-taking |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 66,215.34 | Neutral, bearish | Historic bond-yield surge |
| HK50, Hang Seng | 25,339.51 | Bearish | Shein’s weak market debut |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1540 | 1.1660 | CPI determines breakout |
| GBP/USD | 1.3480 | 1.3610 | Gilts cap recovery |
| USD/JPY | 158.80 | 160.00 | Coordination limits upside |
| USD/CHF | 0.8040 | 0.8160 | Yields support advance |
| USD/CAD | 1.3800 | 1.3940 | Oil guides the break |
| AUD/USD | 0.7110 | 0.7230 | China supports dips |
| EUR/JPY | 184.50 | 186.50 | Policy repricing drives price |
| AUD/JPY | 113.70 | 115.30 | Risk tone tests momentum |
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $84.00 | $89.00 | Conflict sustains premium |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $89.00 | $94.00 | Hormuz risk supports dips |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.82 | $3.05 | Range awaits demand signal |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,380 | $4,500 | Yields constrain rebounds |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $65.00 | $68.50 | Support enables stabilization |
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 65,500 | 67,000 | Bond selloff caps gains |
| HK50, Hang Seng | 25,000 | 25,750 | IPO weakness favors sellers |
Trader’s Takeaway
The dominant risk is an oil-driven inflation shock extending the bond selloff. U.S. ISM and JOLTS test rate expectations. USD/JPY below 160.00 and gold below $4,500 preserve policy pressure, while Brent above $89 maintains its premium. Nikkei and Hang Seng recoveries require resistance breaks.
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