Date: 29.07.2026
Market Sentiment
Risk appetite is under pressure after a sharp Asian technology-led selloff, while renewed Middle East tensions have lifted oil and revived inflation concerns. The US dollar remains near a one-month high despite a modest pullback, as markets await the Federal Reserve decision and policy guidance. Softer Australian inflation has sharply reduced expectations of an imminent RBA rate increase, weighing on the Australian dollar. Crude’s renewed advance supports energy-linked currencies, but also raises the risk that higher energy costs keep major central banks cautious. Equity volatility, oil headlines, and the Fed’s tone are the dominant cross-market drivers.
Previous Session Recap
US equities finished mixed as investors balanced upcoming technology earnings against the Federal Reserve decision. Crude oil fell sharply during Tuesday’s session, with WTI briefly slipping below $80 and Brent below $85, before reversing higher overnight. The dollar retained broad support, while the yen remained weak near historically soft levels.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- Australian inflation slowed more than expected, prompting a sharp reduction in near-term RBA hike expectations.
- Oil rebounded more than 3% as Middle East security concerns again raised supply and shipping risks.
- South Korean and Taiwanese equities fell heavily as concerns around AI spending and semiconductor valuations intensified.
- The US dollar eased modestly but remained near recent highs ahead of the Fed decision.
- Gold and silver firmed as a softer dollar and geopolitical uncertainty supported precious metals.
Forex Focus of the Day
USD/JPY remains the principal Forex focus. The pair is holding close to 164 despite a modest yen recovery, with the wide interest-rate gap still supporting the dollar. However, elevated oil prices are a headwind for Japan’s import bill, while the pair’s level keeps intervention risk in view. The Federal Reserve decision could determine whether USD/JPY retests recent highs or starts a deeper correction.
Key Economic Events
Times: UTC.
| Time | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US crude oil inventories | USD | High |
| 18:00 | Federal Reserve rate decision | USD | High |
| 18:30 | Federal Reserve press conference | USD | High |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1403 | Neutral | Fed risk versus modest dollar pullback |
| GBP/USD | 1.3353 | Neutral-bearish | Dollar resilience and cautious risk tone |
| USD/JPY | 163.57 | Bullish | Yield differential, Fed risk, intervention watch |
| USD/CHF | 0.8150 | Neutral-bullish | Dollar support offsets safe-haven demand |
| USD/CAD | 1.4091 | Neutral-bearish | Higher oil supports the Canadian dollar |
| AUD/USD | 0.6997 | Bearish | Softer Australian inflation reduces RBA support |
| EUR/JPY | 186.33 | Neutral-bullish | Weak yen, tempered by risk-off flows |
| USD/CNH | 6.7702 | Neutral | China-linked risk sentiment and dollar direction |
Energy & Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | 82.10 | Bullish | Renewed supply and shipping disruption concerns |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | 87.15 | Bullish | Middle East risk premium and tighter supply outlook |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | 2.70 | Neutral-bearish | Soft seasonal demand and ample supply |
| XAU/USD, Gold | 4,040.63 | Neutral-bullish | Fed uncertainty, softer dollar, safe-haven demand |
| XAG/USD, Silver | 58.08 | Bullish | Precious-metal demand and dollar softness |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 5,478 | Bearish | Semiconductor selloff and AI valuation concerns |
| Taiwan Weighted Index | 39,730 | Bearish | Heavy technology-sector liquidation |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1360 | 1.1450 | A break above 1.1450 weakens dollar momentum |
| GBP/USD | 1.3300 | 1.3410 | Hold below 1.3410 keeps pressure intact |
| USD/JPY | 162.90 | 164.20 | A move above 164.20 revives upside momentum |
| USD/CHF | 0.8100 | 0.8190 | 0.8100 is the first downside test |
| USD/CAD | 1.4050 | 1.4140 | Oil-led selling needs a break below 1.4050 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6950 | 0.7040 | Recovery requires a return above 0.7040 |
| EUR/JPY | 185.60 | 187.10 | Rejection below 187.10 limits the advance |
| USD/CNH | 6.7500 | 6.7850 | A break above 6.7850 favors the dollar |
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | 80.00 | 83.70 | Sustained trade above 83.70 extends the rebound |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | 85.00 | 89.00 | 89.00 is the next upside barrier |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | 2.63 | 2.76 | Below 2.63 would reinforce selling pressure |
| XAU/USD, Gold | 4,020 | 4,075 | A close above 4,075 would improve the outlook |
| XAG/USD, Silver | 57.00 | 59.30 | Holding above 57.00 preserves the bullish structure |
| KOSPI | 5,350 | 5,700 | A rebound needs recovery above 5,700 |
| Taiwan Weighted Index | 39,000 | 41,000 | Below 39,000 would signal further stress |
Trader’s Takeaway
The Fed decision is the key volatility catalyst, with its message on inflation and future policy likely to drive the dollar, yields, and risk assets. Traders should also monitor whether oil can sustain its rebound above nearby resistance, as a persistent energy risk premium could complicate the inflation outlook. In equities, stabilization in Asian semiconductor benchmarks would be an important confirmation that broader risk sentiment is improving.
About LMFX
LMFX is a trusted global brokerage providing access to Forex, commodities, indices, and precious metals. Known for its fast execution and competitive spreads, LMFX offers the MT4 trading platform, flexible account types, and a variety of funding options. With dedicated customer support and a focus on transparency and reliability, LMFX serves traders at all experience levels worldwide.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or investment recommendation. Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs involves risk and may not be suitable for all traders. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Seek independent advice if necessary. Please read LMFX’s full ‘Risk Disclosure Statement’. Always trade responsibly.
