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UK GDP down, Consumer price index is up

In the UK Gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by 0.3% in August 2022, after growth of 0.1% in July 2022 (revised down from a growth of 0.2% in our previous publication).
There has been a continued slowing in the underlying three-month on three-month growth, where GDP also fell by 0.3% in the three months to August compared with the three months to May 2022.
Production fell by 1.8% in August 2022 after a fall of 1.1% in July 2022 (revised down from a fall of 0.3% in our previous publication) and was the main contributor to the fall in GDP; this fall was mainly because of a decrease of 1.6% in manufacturing.
Services fell by 0.1% in August 2022, after growth of 0.3% in July 2022 (revised down from a 0.4% growth in our previous publication); human health and social work activities, and arts, entertainment and recreation activities fell by 1.3% and 5.0% respectively and were the largest contributors to the small fall in services in August, partially offset by growth of 1.2% in professional, scientific and technical activities.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.1 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.2 percent before seasonal
Increases in the shelter, food, and medical care indexes were the largest of many contributors to the monthly seasonally adjusted all items increase. These increases were partly offset by a 4.9-percent decline in the gasoline index. The food index continued to rise, increasing 0.8 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.7 percent. The energy index fell 2.1 percent over the month as the gasoline index declined, but the natural gas and electricity indexes increased.

According to the US Department of Labor in the week ending October 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 228,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 219,000. The 4-week moving average was 211,500, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 206,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.0 percent for the week ending October 1, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending October 1 was 1,368,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up 4,000 from 1,361,000 to 1,365,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,363,750, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 1,000 from 1,370,750 to 1,371,750.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $684.0 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, but 8.2 percent (±0.7 percent) above September 2021. Total sales for the July 2022 through September 2022 period were up 9.2 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The July 2022 to August 2022 percent change was revised from up 0.3% (±0.5 percent) to up 0.4 percent (±0.2 percent).

Retail trade sales were down 0.1 percent (±0.4 percent)* from August 2022, but up 7.8 percent (±0.7 percent) above last year. Gasoline stations were up 20.6 percent (±1.6 percent) from September 2021, while Nonstore retailers were up 11.6 percent (±1.1 percent) from last year.