Date: 05.08.2026
Market Sentiment
Risk sentiment is positive as lower oil prices ease inflation concerns and strong corporate earnings revive demand for technology shares. Hopes that diplomatic efforts could improve shipping through the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude lower again, supported bonds, and reduced expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate increase. Asian equities rallied sharply, led by Japan and South Korea, after major US benchmarks closed at records. The dollar remains near a six-week low, while gold and silver are advancing on softer yields. US private employment and services data are today’s main tests for the rate outlook.
Previous Session Recap
Major US and European equity benchmarks reached record highs Tuesday as upbeat company forecasts supported risk appetite. WTI and Brent settled more than 5% lower on diplomatic optimism and improving Gulf shipping expectations. Treasury yields declined, while the yen weakened 0.4% but retained much of its intervention-driven advance.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- Japan’s Nikkei gained about 3.5% as semiconductor and AI shares rebounded.
- South Korea’s KOSPI rose more than 4% amid renewed demand for chipmakers.
- Oil extended its decline as markets assessed progress toward reopening Gulf shipping routes.
- New Zealand unemployment reached 5.6%, its highest level in a decade.
- Gold and silver advanced as lower oil prices reduced inflation and rate concerns.
Forex Focus of the Day
The New Zealand dollar is the main Forex focus after unemployment rose to a decade high. NZD/USD is trading near 0.5867, while AUD/NZD is testing the psychologically important 1.2000 area. The relative strength of Australian equities and weaker New Zealand labor conditions favor the Australian dollar, although US employment and services releases could reshape broader dollar direction.
Key Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12:15 GMT | US ADP Employment Change | USD | High |
| 14:00 GMT | US ISM Services PMI | USD | High |
| 14:30 GMT | US EIA Crude Oil Inventories | USD | High |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1542 | Mildly bullish | Soft dollar, lower yields |
| GBP/USD | 1.3466 | Neutral | US data risk |
| USD/JPY | 157.72 | Neutral, volatile | Intervention risk |
| USD/CAD | 1.4073 | Bullish | Falling oil prices |
| AUD/USD | 0.7046 | Mildly bullish | Asian equity rally |
| NZD/USD | 0.5867 | Bearish | Higher unemployment |
| EUR/JPY | 182.02 | Neutral | Yen intervention threat |
| AUD/NZD | 1.2009 | Bullish | Relative Australian strength |
Energy & Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI | $75.19 | Bearish | Diplomacy, inventory build |
| UKOIL, Brent | $79.04 | Bearish | Improving Hormuz flows |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.69 | Neutral | Supply and seasonal demand |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,175.53 | Bullish | Lower yields, softer dollar |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $61.76 | Bullish | Metals momentum |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 65,990 | Bullish, volatile | AI and semiconductor rebound |
| KOSPI | 6,674.66 | Bullish, volatile | Chipmaker rally |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1500 | 1.1560 | Breakout extends gains |
| GBP/USD | 1.3440 | 1.3500 | Range break sets direction |
| USD/JPY | 156.80 | 158.50 | Rejection revives yen demand |
| USD/CAD | 1.4020 | 1.4120 | Oil weakness supports breakout |
| AUD/USD | 0.7000 | 0.7080 | Above resistance strengthens momentum |
| NZD/USD | 0.5835 | 0.5900 | Support failure extends losses |
| EUR/JPY | 181.20 | 182.80 | Intervention risk caps gains |
| AUD/NZD | 1.1960 | 1.2050 | Above resistance confirms strength |
| USOIL, WTI | $74.00 | $77.00 | Below support extends decline |
| UKOIL, Brent | $78.00 | $80.50 | Resistance limits recovery |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.62 | $2.75 | Range break sets direction |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,140 | $4,200 | Breakout extends rally |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $60.80 | $62.50 | Momentum holds above support |
| JPN225, Nikkei 225 | 65,000 | 67,000 | Breakout sustains technology rally |
| KOSPI | 6,500 | 6,800 | Holding support preserves rebound |
Trader’s Takeaway
The dominant risk is whether Middle East diplomacy delivers lasting improvement in energy flows or quickly disappoints. US private employment and ISM services data are the main scheduled catalysts. Watch EUR/USD near 1.1560, USD/JPY around 158.50, Brent below $80.50, and whether the Nikkei and KOSPI hold their sharp technology-led advances.
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