Date: 28.08.2026
Market Sentiment
Markets are cautious before Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole address, with traders seeking clarity on inflation and the interest-rate path. The dollar is holding near a one-week high and Treasury yields remain elevated, limiting gold despite persistent fiscal concerns. Technology sentiment is stronger after Nvidia and Salesforce delivered major earnings-driven gains, although Asian performance is uneven. Oil is heading for a weekly decline as Strait of Hormuz flows improve, while renewed U.S.-Iran tension preserves a geopolitical premium. Warsh’s tone is likely to determine Friday’s direction.
Previous Session Recap
U.S. technology shares rallied Thursday after Nvidia issued a strong long-term revenue forecast. The Nasdaq gained 1.57%, the S&P 500 rose 0.72%, and the Dow advanced 0.20%. Nvidia surged 8.7%, while Salesforce climbed 22.6% after raising its outlook. Brent and WTI rebounded more than 1%, and gold finished slightly higher.
Top Overnight Global Forex Headlines
- The dollar index held near 99.18 as markets prepared for Warsh’s address at Jackson Hole.
- AUD/USD reached a three-month high after Australian inflation strengthened rate-increase expectations.
- Canada’s dollar remained under pressure from escalating U.S. trade tensions before domestic GDP data.
- KOSPI fell 1.79%, reversing Thursday’s Nvidia-supported advance despite resilient global chip demand.
- Brent and WTI headed for weekly losses as Gulf oil shipments continued recovering.
Forex Focus of the Day
USD/CAD is Friday’s main Forex focus. Canada’s GDP release arrives before Warsh’s policy address, creating two direct catalysts for the pair. U.S.-Canada trade friction and softer weekly oil prices continue to disadvantage the loonie. Holding above 1.3780 preserves the bullish structure toward 1.3920, while a support break would require stronger Canadian growth or a distinctly softer Federal Reserve message.
Key Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07:55 GMT | German Unemployment Change | EUR | High |
| 09:00 GMT | Eurozone Economic Sentiment | EUR | High |
| 12:30 GMT | Canada GDP | CAD | High |
| 13:45 GMT | Chicago PMI | USD | High |
| 14:00 GMT | Federal Reserve Chair Warsh Speech | USD | High |
| 14:00 GMT | U.S. Consumer Sentiment, Final | USD | High |
Major Forex Currency Outlooks
| Pair | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1645 | Neutral, bearish | Firm dollar; subdued eurozone growth |
| GBP/USD | 1.3588 | Slightly bearish | Elevated U.S. yields |
| USD/JPY | 159.55 | Bullish, volatile | Yield gap; intervention risk |
| USD/CAD | 1.3844 | Bullish, volatile | GDP; trade tension |
| AUD/USD | 0.7205 | Bullish | Australian rate repricing |
| NZD/USD | 0.5955 | Neutral, bullish | Regional currency support |
| EUR/CAD | 1.6130 | Neutral, volatile | Eurozone sentiment; Canada GDP |
| CAD/JPY | 115.25 | Neutral, bearish | Canada data; yield divergence |
Energy & Commodities Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $82.89 | Bearish, volatile | Improving Gulf exports |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $89.10 | Bearish, volatile | Hormuz flows; Iran tension |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.92 | Neutral, bullish | Lean storage increase |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,603.91 | Neutral, volatile | Warsh speech; fiscal concern |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $70.13 | Bullish, volatile | Precious-metals momentum |
Indices & Large-Cap Stocks Watch
| Instrument | Price | Bias | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,788.88 | Bearish, volatile | Profit-taking after chip rally |
| Nvidia | $227.98 | Bullish, volatile | Strong revenue forecast |
| Salesforce | $252.05 | Bullish, volatile | Raised outlook; AI partnership |
Key Market Technical Zones
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1580 | 1.1720 | Warsh determines range break |
| GBP/USD | 1.3520 | 1.3650 | Resistance favors sellers |
| USD/JPY | 158.20 | 160.00 | Intervention risk rises near resistance |
| USD/CAD | 1.3780 | 1.3920 | GDP controls breakout |
| AUD/USD | 0.7140 | 0.7250 | Rate expectations support dips |
| NZD/USD | 0.5900 | 0.6020 | Support preserves recovery |
| EUR/CAD | 1.6050 | 1.6220 | Data divergence sets direction |
| CAD/JPY | 114.50 | 116.00 | GDP must clear resistance |
| USOIL, WTI Crude Oil | $81.00 | $85.00 | Exports constrain rebounds |
| UKOIL, Brent Crude Oil | $87.50 | $91.50 | Geopolitics protects support |
| NGAS, Natural Gas | $2.82 | $3.05 | Storage supports the range |
| XAU/USD, Gold | $4,550 | $4,700 | Policy tone controls breakout |
| XAG/USD, Silver | $68.50 | $72.00 | Momentum holds above support |
| KOSPI | 6,700 | 6,900 | Recovery requires renewed chip demand |
| Nvidia | $218 | $235 | Earnings gap remains constructive |
| Salesforce | $240 | $265 | Hold support preserves breakout |
Trader’s Takeaway
Warsh’s Jackson Hole address is the dominant volatility risk, with Canada GDP and U.S. sentiment providing earlier tests. USD/CAD above 1.3780 and USD/JPY below 160.00 preserve current policy themes. Gold must hold $4,550, while Brent below $91.50 maintains its weekly correction. Technology sentiment remains constructive while Nvidia and Salesforce hold their post-earnings support zones.
About LMFX
LMFX is a trusted global brokerage providing access to Forex, commodities, indices, and precious metals. Known for its fast execution and competitive spreads, LMFX offers the MT4 trading platform, flexible account types, and a variety of funding options. With dedicated customer support and a focus on transparency and reliability, LMFX serves traders at all experience levels worldwide.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or investment recommendation. Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs involves risk and may not be suitable for all traders. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Seek independent advice if necessary. Please read LMFX’s full ‘Risk Disclosure Statement’. Always trade responsibly.
